The hottest machinery industry needs to solve the

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Machinery industry: "high-end shortage, low-end surplus" urgently needs to be solved

the automotive aftermarket is quietly rising. At the "2011 top ten annual selection of China's automotive supplies industry" award ceremony hosted by HC360 automotive supplies recently, relevant institutions predicted that China's automotive aftermarket will increase to about 490 billion yuan by 2012, with an annual compound growth rate of 26.9%. Compared with vehicle sales, the automotive aftermarket has a lag period of one to two years. From 2009 to 2010, as an important processing equipment, the production and sales of finishing extruders increased rapidly. In 2011, the growth rate of vehicle sales slowed down, and the consumption of automotive aftermarket will usher in a peak. The picture shows the auto supplies and refitted auto exhibition held in Beijing recently. According to the data released by CF China Machinery Industry Federation a few days ago, compared with the rapid growth in the past 10 years, the growth rate of major economic indicators of China's machinery industry fell comprehensively in 2011, especially the rapid decline in the support of profit growth for customers to better do the work of experimental machines, and there was a phenomenon that the profit growth rate was lower than the production and sales growth rate for the first time in recent years. Looking forward to 2012, this momentum is likely to intensify

caiweici, vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the profit growth rate is lower than the production and sales growth rate, which indicates that the high-end supply of the machinery industry is insufficient, the low-end capacity is surplus, and the upgrading of the industrial structure is imminent

industry problems and difficulties continue to accumulate

according to the statistics of the National Statistics Bureau, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry in 2011 was 16.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.06% year-on-year. Since March, the monthly output value of the machinery industry has exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive months, including 1.66 trillion yuan in December, a record high. In terms of growth rate, the monthly growth rate of the output value of the machinery industry at the beginning of the year fell rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 28.87% in March and a fall in growth rate to 22.85% in May. The downward trend was too strong, which once triggered concerns about the development of the industry; However, since the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has gradually slowed down, showing a steady growth trend on the whole

"however, it is noteworthy that compared with the production and marketing indicators in the same period, the economic benefit indicators of the machinery industry fell faster, and the problems and difficulties faced by the industry operation continued to accumulate." Cai Weici said

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the production and sales growth rate and profit growth rate of the machinery industry showed a continuous downward trend in 2011. The growth rate of gross industrial output fell from 33.93% last year to 25.06% in 2011, and the profit growth rate in the same period fell from 55.6% to 21.14%. The decline was significantly faster than that of production and sales, and the profit growth rate at the end of the year was about 4 percentage points lower than that of production and sales, which was the first time that the profit growth rate was lower than that of production and sales in recent years. Although the absolute number of profit margin of main business income is high, it is still 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year

"weak market demand highlights overcapacity in China's machinery industry." According to Cai Weici, affected by the slowdown of user industry investment and the intensification of export market turbulence, since 2011, the market demand for mechanical products has shown a weak trend, and the year-on-year growth rate of finished product inventory is basically at a high level of about 20%, far higher than the level of about 10% in the previous two years. At the same time, the growth rate of enterprise orders has decreased significantly. According to the statistics of key survey enterprises in the machinery industry, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative orders has dropped to about 6% by the end of the year, significantly lower than the level of more than 30% in the same period of last year. Insufficient orders further exacerbated the contradiction of overcapacity

caiweici said, "due to the oversupply, the price index of machinery products throughout the year showed a downward trend, hovering around 101% on the whole, and the monthly month on month price index in the second half of the year was always lower than 100%, and the price index of some products was lower than the same period last year. Especially for products with rapid expansion of production capacity in the early stage, such as wind turbine generator sets, the price index fell more significantly."

at the same time, the use cost of funds in the machinery industry has increased, making it more difficult to operate. In 2011, with the adjustment of monetary policy and the tightening of liquidity in the capital market, the demand of enterprises for working capital exceeded the supply capacity of the market, resulting in difficulties in fund recovery and rising financing costs. Since May, the total amount of accounts receivable in the machinery industry has exceeded 2trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.98% to 2.23 trillion yuan. Due to the difficulty of fund recovery, the liquidity pressure of enterprises has increased, and the demand for short-term financing has soared. According to the data of enterprises mainly surveyed by China Machinery Industry Federation, from June to November, the year-on-year growth rate of short-term loans of enterprises has always remained above 40%. Although the growth rate slowed down at the end of the year, it still increased by 38.7% year-on-year

"the insufficient supply of market funds has led to a sharp rise in the cost of using funds. The growth rate of the financial expenses of the machinery industry in the whole year has remained at a high level. Although the growth rate fell slightly in July and August, the year-end year-on-year growth rate has returned to above 36%." Cai Weici said

the adjustment of industrial structure still needs to be accelerated

insiders pointed out that the deterioration of efficiency and the increasing difficulty of operation showed that the industrial structure of China's machinery industry could not adapt to the changes in demand. Although some progress has been made in structural adjustment in the past year, compared with the more drastic changes in the current demand market, the momentum of this progress is still not big enough or fast enough

according to customs statistics, in 2011, China's machinery industry imported foreign exchange of US $309.4 billion, an increase of 21.18% over the previous year. "Under the background that the slowing growth of domestic demand has become the main constraint to the operation of the industry, the import volume is still so large and the import growth is still so strong, which only shows that the domestic supply capacity can not fully meet the needs of all aspects." The industry insiders said. He said that the trade deficit between China's machinery industry and Germany, Japan and other equipment manufacturing powers in 2011 was as high as US $57.8 billion and US $49.2 billion respectively, which concentrated on the huge gap between China and the world's advanced level in the field of high-end equipment. Although the foreign trade of China's machinery industry achieved a surplus of about US $12.4 billion in 2011, the surplus mainly comes from the processing trade at the low end of the industrial chain, while in the "general trade"

which can better reflect the actual level of industrial competitiveness, it is a huge deficit of US $22.2 billion

taking the machine tool industry, which has a far-reaching impact on the equipment manufacturing industry, as an example, the trade deficit in 2011 was as high as 13.4 billion US dollars. The average unit price of imported CNC machine tools in China is $219200/set, while the average unit price of exports is only $33400/set. In addition, in 2011, the proportion of China's own brand cars in the total output of cars decreased, which also reflects the urgent need to improve the ability of independent innovation. "Although the industrial structure adjustment of China's machinery industry has started, it still needs to be accelerated, and although the upgrading has begun, it still needs to be encouraged. Otherwise, the excess capacity cannot be transformed into the supply capacity to adapt to the upgrading of demand, and otherwise, it is not enough to curb the deterioration of benefits." The industry insiders said

Cai Weici also pointed out that looking at the problems and challenges encountered in the operation of the machinery industry in 2011, we should realize that these changes are long-term and overall. The whole industry must fully understand the profound changes in the development environment of the industry, enhance the sense of hardship, and change from the goal orientation of speed and scale to the goal orientation of quality and efficiency. For this reason, even at the expense of some speed, the whole industry should continue to devote itself to promoting the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the machinery industry, and do everything possible to increase the intensity of "attacking the high-end and tamping the foundation", so as to upgrade the general processing capacity that has been seriously surplus in the industry into high-end production capacity that is still in short supply, and enhance the long-term development momentum of the industry

Looking forward to 2012, the China Machinery Industry Federation believes that the uncertainty of the development environment of China's machinery industry is still large, and the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2012 also faces several prominent adverse factors: first, the weak demand market. After the rapid growth of the domestic market in previous years, with the deepening of structural adjustment and the deceleration of the expansion of infrastructure projects, the growth rate has slowed down significantly. But at the same time, the production capacity is still expanding at a high speed, so the situation of product supply exceeding demand is becoming more prominent, and the market environment faced by the industry in the future is more severe. Second, the international economic situation is grim. The world economic growth slows down, the international financial market is turbulent, the prospect of world economic recovery is not optimistic, and the uncertainty of the external demand market of the machinery industry increases. Third, the pressure of rising costs and expenses will exist for a long time. Affected by the tightening of market liquidity, the financing difficulty of enterprises has increased and the cost has continued to rise, making it difficult to fundamentally improve this situation in the short term; At the same time, with the rise of prices and the improvement of the labor wage system, the labor cost of enterprises has increased significantly. These factors have increased the pressure on the growth of business efficiency of the whole industry in the future

however, the machinery industry also faces favorable factors in 2012: first, policy orientation is conducive to the development of the machinery industry. High end equipment manufacturing industry and new energy vehicles, as strategic emerging industries supported by the national 12th Five Year Plan, will further drive the industrial structure adjustment of the machinery industry and promote the upgrading process of product structure. The guidance of the central economic work conference to develop the real economy is also conducive to the future development of the machinery industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Secondly, the ability of enterprises to cope with market changes is enhanced. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, machinery enterprises developed actively in a good market environment and accumulated a certain amount of original capital; At the same time, having experienced the baptism of the international financial crisis, enterprises have enhanced their ability to cope with market changes

"It is expected that although the growth rate of major economic indicators of the machinery industry this year is lower than that in 2011, it will not decline excessively, or even 'hard landing'. The growth rate curve of major economic indicators throughout the year will show a trend of low before and flat after. It may reach the low point of this round of decline at the end of the first quarter or the second quarter, and then the growth rate will stabilize again. The annual production and sales growth rate is expected to be about 18%, the profit growth rate is about 12%, lower than the production and sales growth rate; the export growth rate is about 15%. ”Cai Weici said

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